School Capacities Reduction: Geodemographic Background Study for Decision Making Process (an Inner Prague District Case Study)

Boris Burcin, Charles University, Prague
Eva Caithamlova, Charles University, Prague
Zdenek Cermak, Charles University, Prague
Tomas Kucera, Charles University, Prague

Deep decrease of natality in the Czech Republic since the mid of 1990s has resulted in ineffective use of available school capacities and has arose a question of their reduction. The decision to close basic schools was mostly adopted on the basis of current situation on "schooling market" and its simplest extrapolation in time. Self-governmental bodies of two Prague inner districts belongs to those few who asked demographers for their expertise before further discussion of the question. As a result an original methods based on census results, current population statistics, surveys and population forecast were compiled to analyze and forecast utilization of schooling capacities and their gravity regions. The later were visualized and analyzed using GIS and (carto)graphic methods. Future utilization of available capacities until 2030 was estimated combining own local population forecast and assumed future commuting flows of pupils over district borders.