An Interactive Demographic Approach to Projecting the Supply of Nurses by State

Richard A. Smiley, NCSBN

Numerous reports on the shortage of nurses in the United States have appeared over the last few years. Evidence has shown that an overworked workforce could compromise public safety.In this context, state policy makers need to be able to assess the potential scope of a shortage in their own states. One component in making such assessments is the future projections of the supply of nurses within the state. Statistical approaches have been used to develop such projections with some success, but the processes generating the outcomes have not always been understood by the recipients. In an attempt to develop a more user-friendly projection process, a simplistic demographic approach has been employed. The model has received a positive reception and has been employed in some states, but refinements are still in order.