Risk and Household Structure: Another Look at the Determinants of Fertility

Claus C. Pörtner, University of Washington

Most households in developing countries face significant income risks but at the same time have very few means of mitigating these risks or responding to shocks. These households rely on self-insurance that may be suboptimal in the long run. A household may decide to have more children to command more labor when replanting is needed after a natural disaster, even though this leads to low average consumption and lower educational attainment for the children. Despite years of analyzing the determinants of fertility the effects of income risks on fertility have received little attention. Hence, this paper estimates the effects of the risks of various natural disasters on fertility and education using data from Guatemala.