An Extension of the Use of Administrative Records to Estimate Internal Migration in the Intercensal Population Estimates

Signe I. Wetrogan, U.S. Census Bureau

The Intercensal Population Estimates Area has long relied solely upon the use of extracts from IRS 1040 tax data to develop estimates of the rate of internal migration. Recent work at the Census Bureau has provided an opportunity to explore whether extending the administrative records database to include Medicare, IRS 1099 and W2 records, plus selected data from HUD increases the representativeness of the administrative records database compared to the total population. The availability of migration data from the American Community Survey also affords the opportunity to develop a model to modify the rates resulting from the administrative records database to better represent the total population. This paper describes the extension and presents some preliminary evaluations of the results.