World Population Changes from 1990 to 2005 Viewed through the Stationary Population Equivalent

Roger Avery, Brown University

The stationary population equivalent is the weighted some of the female population, where the weights are that women's contribution to a future sationary population formed by continuing constant mortality and replacement fertility. This measure is calculated for the 227 countries in US Census bureau's International Data Base for the years 1990, 1995, 2000 and 2005. The results indicate that for an increasing number of countries all or most of reported population growth is due to the using up of momentum built into the age structure by previous high fertility and immigration and not the result of current high fertiity or immigration patterns. This trends appears to have accelerated from 1990-1995 to 2000-2005 and is concentrated in the less developed countries.