Human Mortality and Chronic Disease Incidence at Extreme Ages: New Data and Analysis

Igor Akushevich, Duke University
Kenneth G. Manton, Duke University
Aliaksandr Kulminski, Duke University

We analyze mortality and chronic disease incidence including cancer, CVD, diabetes etc. at ages 65 and above with special emphasis on individuals above age 85 when a strong deviation from the Gompertz mortality function has been observed. We study these phenomena using nationally representative National Long Term Care Survey (NLTCS) longitudinal data collected from 1982 to 1999 because of the high quality of age reporting (it is linked to continue time Medicare records since 1982) and over samples of persons aged 95+ in 1994 and 1999 (to be done again in the 2004 NLTCS). To model these complex mortality and incidence patterns we develop a four parameter model with a location parameter, a fixed (genetic) heterogeneity distribution and parameter expressing the relative balance of anabolic and catabolic biological processes. This four parameter model gave us excellent fits to the mortality and chronic disease incidence data.