Post-Census 2000 Population Estimates for the Municipios of Puerto Rico: Current Research at the Census Bureau

Bashiruddin Ahmed, U.S. Census Bureau
Arjun Adlakha, U.S. Census Bureau
Antonio Bruce, U.S. Census Bureau

The U.S. Census Bureau produces yearly estimates of the resident population of Puerto Rico and its 78 municipios. In this paper, we describe two methods that are under consideration at the Census Bureau for producing population estimates: the “ratio method” and the “cohort component method.” The estimates are produced by age and sex. In the ratio method, we assume that the Census 2000 age-sex distribution of the municipios remains the same through 2003. In the cohort-component method, we use the traditional demographic accounting system. Starting with a base population, deaths are subtracted and births are added to form new cohorts. Estimates of net international migration and net internal migration are added to or subtracted from the base population. The limitations of the two methods are discussed and the results are compared and contrasted.