Methods and Techniques to Measure and Categorize Migrant Movements Applied to the Brazilian States of São Paulo and Bahia

Ernesto F. Amaral, University of Texas at Austin

This paper focuses on the improvement of migration methods and their application to the migration between the Brazilian states of Bahia and São Paulo. There are several techniques used to measure migrant movements. Machado (1993) created an estimation of probabilities of emigration, but this technique has some errors. In the denominator, the component of emigration needs to be added. In the numerator, children between zero and five years of age need special weights, adding indirect effects of migration. This correction is an improvement in the migration study. Another objective is to demonstrate results obtained from 1980, 1991 and 2000 Brazilian Censuses. The main findings suggest higher migration levels from Bahia to São Paulo. More industrialized areas attract more female than male migrants, explained by the existence of labor opportunities for women. Migration to São Paulo is more concentrated around labor ages. Migration to Bahia presents a familiar pattern of probabilities.