The Demographic Impact of AIDS Mortality among the Adult Population in 56 Countries

Brynn G. Epstein, U.S. Census Bureau
Laura M. Heaton, U.S. Census Bureau

This paper will elaborate on demographic effects specific to the HIV/AIDS pandemic in 56 countries that meet the criteria established by the U.S. Census Bureau for a generalized epidemic. Located in Africa, Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean, AIDS mortality in these countries is increasing death rates in those ages where mortality due to all other causes is very low, among 15- to 49-year-old adults. Utilizing a U.S. Census Bureau model for estimating AIDS mortality, along with the Rural-Urban Projection Program, this paper will specifically examine mortality among adults and estimate the impact of AIDS mortality on several demographic indicators, by sex, for 2005 and 2015. These indicators include age-specific mortality rates, adult crude death rates, under-five mortality rates, life expectancy at 15, crude birth rates, and population structure; and are presented alongside a hypothetical “No AIDS” scenario, in which the estimated AIDS mortality is taken out of the projection.