Labor Migration and the Spread of STD: Gonorrhea in Japanese-Occupied Micronesia, 1920 - 1945

Susan L. Cassels, Princeton University

Male migrants are associated with increased STD prevalence particularly because they tend to engage in risky sexual behavior while away. However, little research has quantified the impact of return migration on STD prevalence in the female population at home. This paper presents a microsimulation model of gonorrhea transmission in order to measure the effect of migration on gonorrhea prevalence. The model is fitted with data from a Japanese-occupied island in Micronesia, where gonorrhea prevalence was extremely high and the only significant population movement was male labor migration. Migration plays a significant role in the initial rate of increase of gonorrhea prevalence; but once rates stabilize over time, labor migration was only responsible for a 3% increase in women’s gonorrhea prevalence. The reason why migration did not contribute to a greater increase in gonorrhea prevalence rates is because of the combination of short infectious periods and high transmission probabilities.