On the Rising Tendency of Disability Risk in the Process of Mortality Decline

Nan Li, Duke University

Reducing mortality is widely taken as a social development target; its side effects have rarely been mentioned. On the basis of multistate model, this paper introduces necessary measures, and illustrates that mortality decline raises disability risk. This effect implies living longer does not lead to living healthier, and requires thinking about how to reduce disability risk. To show the effect of mortality decline raising disability risk in a controllable way, this paper simulates consequences of hypothetical mortality declines, using the US data.