From Native to Immigrant and Back Again: A Historical and Prospective Analysis of Generational Changes in the Hispanic Population, 1960–2030

Jeffrey S. Passel, Pew Hispanic Center
Marta Tienda, Princeton University

Historical demographic analysis of the Latino and total U.S. population for 1960–2000 finds that both immigration and net movement from Puerto Rico are severely understated in official population estimates. We incorporate higher levels of immigration into a 5-generation projection model to analyze changes in generational and age composition of the Latino population over the last 4 decades. With the fitted model, we decompose changes into contributions of various waves of immigrants and the initial population. We also determine the degree to which the 3rd-and-higher generation consists of grandchildren of immigrants (3rd generation) and higher-order descendants. Based on the historical results, we project the population (with high levels of immigration) that shows continued rapid growth of Latinos to 2030. Generational shifts in place by 2000 are expected to continue as the generations take on distinctive age structures. Finally, implications of such changes for the future influence of Latinos are discussed.