Forty Years of 5-Years Ago Data: County Migration from the 1970, 1980, 1990, and 2000 Censuses

Dan Mercer, Johns Hopkins University

Using data from the residence five years ago questions from the 1970, 1980, 1990, and 2000 censuses, this paper will examine county in-, out-, and net migration by age, particularly the movement of retirement-age persons. Geographic detail and a time series are necessary for proper statistical analysis. Migration is to or from a specific location within a state, not to or from the state as a whole. Since states are diverse places, it is necessary to have a more area-specific measure of migrant destination and origin. Unmeasured fixed effects can be accounted for only with time series data. The age structure of a local area can change over a short period of time, altering the desired bundle of public goods and services and changing the area’s character. The primary objectives of this research are to enumerate and to begin to assess the small area movement of the population over time.