Estimates and Projections of Prevalence of Type Two Diabetes Mellitus in the US 2001, 2011, 2021: The Role of Demographic Factors in T2DM

Sharon W. Kirmeyer, National Center for Health Statistics - CDC
Susan C. Eaton, RTI Health Solutions

Objectives: The goals of this project are to 1) estimate the US’ prevalence of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus for 2001 to 2021 and 2) compare demographic contributions with those made by changes in the population’s Body Mass Index. Research Design and Methods: Component projections for four racial/ethnic groups were made through 2021. Age- sex-, -ethnic group-specific prevalence of diabetes was generated from the NHIS and NHANES surveys of 1999-2000 and applied to the estimates of the U.S. population. Several scenarios of BMI change per group were generated. Sensitivity analysis assessed the relative contribution of population growth, demographic change, and BMI change. Results: Evaluation of a range of scenarios shows that change in BMI affects overall prevalence through demographic composition. Conclusion: While both demographic factors of growth and composition contribute to changing T2DM prevalence; composition plays the major role. As these are intrinsic factors, preventative and therapeutic interventions are required.