The Estimation of Unwanted Fertility

John B. Casterline, Pennsylvania State University
Laila El-Zeini, American University in Cairo

The estimation of unwanted fertility is a major objective of demographic surveys, including the Demographic and Health Surveys [DHS]. Levels and trends in unwanted fertility are important input to the formulation of population policy and the evaluation of family planning programs. Yet the existing methods, by common agreement, inaccurately estimate unwanted fertility. We first reviews methods currently available for estimating unwanted fertility, assessing their strengths and limitations. We then present a new method for the estimation of unwanted fertility that in most settings will suffer from less bias than existing methods. The new method makes use of the standard item "desire for another birth". The method is simple to apply and makes minimal data demands. We illustrate the method with DHS data from Bangladesh and Egypt. In both, the new method yields estimates of the percentage of births unwanted that differ from standard estimates by as much as one-third.