Province-Specific Mortality in China, 1990-2000

Simona Bignami, Harvard University

This paper uses data from the two most recent population censuses of the People’s Republic of China to estimate province-specific mortality levels and trends from 1990 to 2000. I estimate completeness of death reporting at the province level by modifying the General Growth Balance method to account for inter-province migration flows, which have increasingly affected Chinese provinces in the last decade. These estimates permit calculating adjusted life tables by province for the intercensal period 1990-2000 as well as for the period 1999-2000. The results of the analysis suggest significant provincial variation in the declining trend of mortality that China as a whole has experienced since the late 1960s.