Regional Projection of Households and Income Distributions by Race in the United States

Yi Zeng, Duke University
Zhenglian Wang, Duke University
Danan Gu, Duke University

Using ProFamy new method/software, this paper presents projections of households and income distribution from 2000 to 2050 by race for the Northeast, South, West, and Midwest regions in the U.S. Results show that the growth rate of number of households is higher than that of population for each region. The average household size in each region will steadily decline, and the regional differentials in dynamic changes of household sizes and types are substantial. The household of the West and South are relatively stable as compared to the other two regions. Very large increase in two-person and one-person households causes substantial increases in number of middle-income households. Although the patterns of dynamic changes in number of households by income across regions are not the same, the discrepancies are relatively small. We also discuss useful potential of households and income distribution projections in forecasting household consumption, such as vehicles, energy, and housing.