Transitions from Cohabitation to Marriage

Jason Fields, U.S. Census Bureau
Rose Kreider, U.S. Census Bureau

Using Waves 1 through 9 of the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) 2001 Panel, this paper uses couple-month data and event history analysis to examine the association between characteristics of cohabiting couples and their likelihood of marrying or dissolving. Characteristics of the couple include their educational attainment, whether the partners were formerly married, their age, race and origin, economic characteristics, whether each partner has children, and if the couple has children together. This research marks the first time that detailed monthly SIPP data have been used to conduct a prospective longitudinal analysis of cohabitation dynamics. The analysis explicitly controls for right censoring. We identify the importance of the presence and type of children in the household, the continued importance of higher education in increasing the odds of marriage, and the potential for a curvilinear relationship between male partner’s income and the likelihood of marriage.