The Paradox of Declining Infertility Rates in the United States

Elizabeth H. Stephen, Georgetown University
Anjani Chandra, National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), CDC

This paper analyzes the decline in 12-month infertility rates among married women aged 15-44 in the United States from 1982-2002. Data from the National Survey of Family Growth are used to calculate trends in the prevalence of 12-month infertility. The trends are analyzed for all married women, and by subgroups defined by age, parity, education, income and race/ethnicity. The decline in 12-month infertility rates in the United States between 1982 and 2002 was evident in nearly all subgroups of married women, even after controlling for compositional differences of the population over time. In the multivariate analysis, infertility was more likely among women who were: nulliparous and older, non-Hispanic black or Hispanic, and didn't have a college degree. We conclude that changes in the composition of the population between 1982 and 2002 do not explain the decline in infertility.