Demographic Change and the Balance of Power in Europe -- Will Population Trends Translate into New Political Conflicts?

Harald Wilkoszewski, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research
Ursula M. Muench, Full Professor, University of the Federal Armed Forces, Munich

While many European studies deal with the consequences of population aging on the policy-level (e.g. social security), remarkably little attention has been paid to the politics-level. However, demographic change makes European countries not only age; it also affects their population sizes; the majority of them will shrink to a greater (e.g. Italy) or lesser extent (e.g. Germany). On the other hand, some countries will grow in population size (e.g. France). The question is, whether these different developments are going to affect the balance of power in European Union institutions. Using UN data on all 28 member and candidate countries of the EU we will give a comparative perspective on the demographic developments until 2050 to analyze how the distribution of votes will be affected and if new lines of political conflict (in addition to the traditional ones, e.g. big vs. small or North vs. South) are likely to emerge.