New Approaches and Estimates of Foreign Born Emigration

Jennifer Van Hook, Bowling Green State University
Jeffrey S. Passel, Pew Hispanic Center
Weiwei Zhang, Bowling Green State University

Post-censal population estimates depend on the accuracy of estimates of demographic components of change. Of these components, emigration of the foreign born is probably the least well known. Indirect methods (i.e., the residual method) are particularly problematic for estimating emigration for recent arrivals. We introduce a new method that takes advantage of the unique design of the CPS. The CPS follows housing units—not necessarily individuals—over 16 months. Individuals in the March CPS not successfully followed up include those who died, internal migrants, and emigrants. We use statistical methods to estimate the proportion of emigrants among those not followed up. Our method produces emigration estimates that are comparable to residual-based methods in the case of earlier arrivals (immigrants who arrived more than ten years ago), but yields much higher estimates for earlier arrivals. Also, we find distinct yet predictable patterns of emigration and return migration by country-of-origin and legal status.