Urban Growth in Pre- and Post-Reform Vietnam: Patterns and Components of Growth, the 1979-1989 and 1989-1999 Inter-Censal Periods

Sang Thanh Le, Southern Institute of Social Sciences

In this study, I analyze patterns and components of urban growth in pre- and post-reform Viet Nam, using Shryock’s method based on survival rates and age structures by sex of observed urban population across the consecutive 1979, 1989, and 1999 censuses. The results show that urban growth was low in the 1979-1989 period but increased rapidly in the 1989-1999 period. Natural increase was the most important component that accounted for the urban growth in the two periods, but the contribution of net migration increased significantly in the 1989-1999 period as a result of economic progress in cities supported by reform policies. These empirical results lend strong evidence to support the hypotheses that urban growth in the pre-reform era reflects the socialist urbanization thesis, while urban growth in the post-reform era reflects aspects of the modernization model.