Predicting Post-2000 Welfare-to-Work Transition: Personal and Family Life Course, State Welfare Rules, and State Economic Effects

Shelley K. Irving, Pennsylvania State University
Deborah Roempke Graefe, Pennsylvania State University

The object of this research is to investigate explanations for the welfare-to-work transition of female TANF recipients during the 2001-2003 economic downturn period in the U.S. The hypothesized determinants of welfare-to-work transition include demographic characteristics, family structure, human capital, work and welfare experience, migration, supplemental financial assistance, state welfare policies, and state economic indicators. Family characteristics are hypothesized to mediate the influence of race on welfare-to-work transition. Individual-level longitudinal data from the 2001-2003 panel of the Survey of Income and Program Participation are merged with state-level data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Welfare Rules Database to test hierarchal multinomial models of welfare-to-work transition. Descriptive data show that 32% of TANF receivers at time 1 were working and not receiving TANF at time 2 and an addition 15% were both working and receiving TANF at time 2. Initial results show that work and welfare experience are the strongest predictors of welfare-to-work transition.