China's Rising Sex Ratio at Birth: New Assessments, Provincial Trends, and Linkages to Postnatal Discrimination

Daniel M. Goodkind, U.S. Census Bureau
Loraine A. West, U.S. Census Bureau

The sex ratio at birth reported in China’s 2000 census was nearly 117 males per 100 females. This record distortion is due primarily to rising use of sex-selective abortion, although excess underreporting of daughters is another factor. Based on a broad assessment of Chinese and international data, as well as assumptions of no change in excess daughter underreporting, we posit that China’s true sex ratio at birth was 114 in 2000, up from 108 in 1989. That assessment connects with another question – has rising prenatal discrimination added to (or substituted for) postnatal discrimination against young daughters? We examine national and province level data derived from China’s 1990 and 2000 censuses. Rising sex ratios at birth were associated with rising excesses of female infant mortality. Such additive findings at the regional level, whatever their explanation, may not reflect decisionmaking by individual parents, who may substitute one discriminatory practice for another.