Fertility Decline in Brazil: A Different Tempo Effect with Strong Consequences

Eduardo L.G. Rios-Neto, Pontifícia Universidade Católica de Minas Gerais
Vania Candida da Silva, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais
Adriana Miranda-Ribeiro, Cedeplar / Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais
Jose A. Ortega, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid
Jose Alberto M. de Carvalho, Centro de Desenvolvimento e Planejamento Regional (CEDEPLAR)

Brazil has experienced a steady fertility decline during the last thirty years. The Brazilian Census Bureau figures indicate a decline in TFR: 6.3 (1960) to 2.3 (2000). The median age is almost constant (22.5), and the relative distribution of period ASFRs is concentrated before 25 years of age. Preliminary estimations based on the reconstruction of birth histories from census data and the application of Kohler-Ortega methodology indicated that TFR was 2.2, while TFR adjusted for tempo effect was 1.3 in 2000. The Brazilian case may be considered a different paradigm, contrasting with the below replacement European cases. To the extent that this European pattern is linked to some sort of second demographic transition and/or high women’s education, one may foresee a pattern of low fertility in Brazil that could imply strong negative externalities. A replication of this methodology for women grouped by education can be insightful to the future.