Accounting for the Disparity in the Fertility Transition in Ethiopia: A Multilevel and Decomposition Approach

Muluye Desta, University of Southampton

Until recently, only sub-Saharan Africa was lagging behind in the path towards fertility transition. However, recent data for some of the countries in the region indicate that fertility has begun to decline. One of such countries is Ethiopia. According to the ETDHS 2000, fertility transition is taking place in Ethiopia at a faster pace than that predicted by the UN, experiencing a reduction in total fertility rate of on average 0.8 children per woman per decade between 1984 and 2000. Yet, a woman in the capital city - Addis Ababa, has approached below replacement fertility level (TFR=1.94, while a woman in the rest of Ethiopia expects about a three times higher number of children). This paper, using multilevel spatial modeling and decomposition techniques, attempts to look at some of the possible explanations for the disparity in the fertility level and transition between the capital city and the rest of Ethiopia.