Fertility and Poverty in Developing Countries: A Comparative Analysis for Albania, Ethiopia, Indonesia and Vietnam

Arnstein Aassve, University of Essex
Francesca Francavilla, University of Florence
Abbi Kedir, University of Leicester
Jungho Kim, Vienna Institute of Demography
Alessandra Mattei, University of Florence
Fabrizia Mealli, University of Florence
Letizia Mencarini, University of Florence
Laura Neri, University of Siena, Dept of quantitative methods
Stephen Pudney, University of Essex

We report a comparative analysis of fertility and poverty, using household panel data from four developing countries: Albania, Ethiopia, Indonesia and Vietnam. We use a sequential conditioning approach to analyze the initial distribution of household characteristics in terms of demographic composition, economic activity and economic welfare; and then the pattern of change over time. We will use various statistical methods, including non-parametric estimation and hazard rate analysis. The four countries differ greatly in their history, average income, social structure, economic institutions and demographic features and we consider whether it is possible to discern a common pattern in this apparent diversity.